NU professor uses program to predict students' retention

By Marshall Bates
Norwich Guidon Staff Writer

According to Michael McKean, Norwich University's VP for student affairs, students who leave the university do so for different reasons.

"Reasons range from financial to academic problems," McKean said. "Students dissatisfied with the Corps of Cadets and the activities of the Corps. Other students might leave because their lifestyle changes. People choose a lifestyle based on what they think they know, and once they get into it, they find things they don't like."

In every college in America, students leave for a multitude of reasons that are difficult if not impossible to predict when they first enroll.

But a new study, being carried out at Norwich University, is attempting to predict in advance which students will graduate and which students will leave.

Gerard LaVarnway, a professor of mathematics at Norwich, and his colleague, professor Cathy Frey, are doing a study in student retention issues as they relate to Norwich University.

"We are working with an algorithm call C.A.R.T., which stands for Classification And Regression Trees," LaVarnway said. "It is a mathematical theory that I used when I was tracking ships for the Navy. We think that it has applications for studying student retention at Norwich."

According to LaVarnway, the algorithm arrives at its decision in what is called "binary splits."

"It tries to ask a yes or no question at each stage in the processing," LaVarnway said. "It looks at different predictors for incoming students like the SAT or ACT scores, financial aid and even the number of siblings in the family."

The algorithm will ask a question like "Is the student's SAT above or below 1000?" according to LaVarnway. If the answer is yes, the algorithm will go to the left. If not, it will go to the right.

The algorithm keeps parting the data set until it can finally make a decision on whether or not a student will graduate or not.

"The data being used for this study is from 1985 to 1996," LaVarnway said. "From that group 54 percent of the people who enrolled at Norwich graduated from Norwich."

LaVarnway warns that the algorithm, while precise in operation, will never be 100 percent accurate.

"We are always going to get some of the calls incorrect," LaVarnway said. "Of the undeclared students we predicted would not graduate, 97% were correct, meaning out of every one hundred students, three graduated."

LaVarnway said he hopes to continue his research on university retention.

"We have presented our results to the administration and the department heads," LaVarnway said. "We are hoping there is enough support for us to continue."

Until professor LaVarnway completes his research, university faculty will continue to debate the reasons why people leave the school.

"To me, one of the biggest things that happens in college is that students determine if their dream has been right or wrong," Reverend Wick, the Norwich University chaplain, said. "If the student makes a decision based on that, it's not quitting, it's just finding the best way to get their objectives done.

"To me, the biggest issue is that if you make a decision like this, it should not be running away from a problem, but it should be pursuing a goal," Wick said.

"The faculty and staff are very committed to keeping the students here," McKean said.

"We have faculty that work late into the night with study halls and tutoring students, and we try to give the students a number of different activities to make the quality of life better."

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